After a short three game slate on Monday, all of Major League Baseball is back on Tuesday.
While teams are starting to find themselves in the crosshairs of postseason races, preconceived notions are forming around certain teams and players. However, I'm fading some pitchers that started the season strong, but are due to regress as the season goes on, and at a big price tag.
Below, you'll find my betting analysis on every game on the Tuesday, July 2nd slate, including why I'm backing underdogs such as the Giants, Reds and Diamondbacks.
White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: White Sox (+170)
The Guardians may be in the lead in the AL Central, far ahead of the last place White Sox, but I can’t trust Carlos Carrasco given his current state at this high of a price tag.
Carrasco gets no movement on his pitches anymore, fourth in pitching run value with a 5.27 ERA.
Simply put, it’s a dead fade of the veteran right hander who appears to be far from a quality arm anymore.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-125)
Mitch Keller has turned it on after a slow start, and I’ll back him and the Pirates as small home favorites.
Keller is off a June in which he posted a 2.35 ERA, after posting a 1.30 ERA in four May starts, and will have a significant pitching edge against soft tossing Kyle Gibson.
Gibson has an ERA of 3.70, but an xERA of 4.84 that signals regression can come swiftly for the right hander.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-170)
Boston was fourth in OPS in June and should have little issue out-pacing the Marlins, who were last in that same metric, the only team to post a sub-.600 OPS.
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-140)
The Mets are the far better team when hitting left handed pitching, which is impactful when both teams are starting southpaws.
New York is fourth in OPS against lefties while the Nationals are 28th.
Reds vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+165)
Luis Gil’s slide has been noticeable over his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in less than five full innings. With erratic control and diminishing velocity, I’ll fade Gil once more at this number.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-105)
I’ll ride with the streaking Astros, who took the first game of this early week series and are in line to win yet again on Tuesday.
Jose Berrios remains untrustworthy as his xERA is far higher than his actual ERA (4.50 vs. 3.38), signaling that he can face a downturn in the second half of the season.
I’ll take the better team as slight underdogs.
Giants vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Giants (+155)
I’ll take the big underdog in Atlanta.
San Francisco will start Hayden Birdsong for the second time. While he struggled in his first start, he showcased some serious velocity (85th percentile fastball velocity) and generated swings and misses.
Against a free-swinging Braves team, Birdsong may be in line to put together a strong start with low expectations. Meanwhile, I’m interested in fading Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 1.70 ERA but an xERA of 3.98.
Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-110)
The Tigers receive the benefit of the doubt with AL Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound, but this offense isn’t up to the task.
Detroit is hitting .228 as a unit this season and ranks 28th in OPS over the balance of the season.
Meanwhile, Minnesota may be up to the task to knock around Skubal, posting the second highest OPS against southpaws.
Padres vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-105)
The Padres have been rounding into form, top 10 in OPS in the month of June, and likely have a slight pitching edge with Dylan Cease on the mound.
Cease has lowered his walk rate to a career low level (less than three per nine) while maintaining a massive strikeout rate with more than 11 punchouts per nine innings.
Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (+105)
The Phillies will start prospect Michael Mercado, making his second appearance of his career, likely as an opener. While there may be some concern about his viability, I’m thrilled to get the Phillies at an underdog price against the Cubs, who are off a month in which it was bottom third in the bigs in OPS.
Rays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-120)
Kansas City maintains a fantastic home record, 30-16 at Kauffman Stadium.
In a coin flip matchup, the Royals have the hitting edge and home field advantage to get this done in the series opener.
Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+105)
Dallas Keuchel will be pitching in the hitter friendly Coors Field, which sets up to be problematic for the journeyman left hander.
Keuchel hasn’t struck out more than 15% of batters in the last three full seasons with a walk rate above 8%, highlighting in bloated ERA’s that have consistently been above 5.00.
I can’t trust him as a favorite even with a talented Brewers lineup backing him up.
Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-105)
The Mariners will have the better pitcher on the mound in George Kirby, who has elite command and has done a fantastic job of limiting hard contact. The right hander is in the 99th percentile in walk rate with a 72nd percentile hard-hit percentage.
I’ll take a stab on Seattle as slight home underdogs.
Angels vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (-115)
In a battle of two poor teams, I’m taking the road favorite who has shown a bit more of late.
The Angels hit league average in June in terms of OPS while the A’s checked in 28th.
Further, Jose Soriano (1.93 ERA in two June starts) has been better than Mitch Spence (5.40 ERA in five June starts), leading me to the Halos.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+160)
I’ll take a flier on the underdog Diamondbacks as a way to bank on the surging offense and fade the Dodgers’ starter, Bobby Miller.
Miller is a hard throwing right hander, but hasn’t seen the results come together just yet, posting a 6.75 ERA through five starts, mainly due to a near-14% walk rate.
Miller will face a strong D-Backs lineup that just hit .269 in the month of June (seventh in the bigs) and draws walks at a top 10 rate.